Overall team quality
Baylor advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
ColoradoatBaylor
Colorado13
Baylor23
CALLED
SharpTake projected Baylor at 80%. Baylor won.
ProjectedBaylor by 13.5
ActualBaylor by 10
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadBaylor -9
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Baylor -9
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Colorado 20%Baylor 80%
SharpTake projects Baylor to win.
BaylorProjected winner
80%Win probability
Baylor by 13.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Baylor
Baylor's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Baylor. Baylor also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Colorado's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Baylor advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Baylor advantage
Last season's results
Colorado offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Colorado staying on schedule
EDGEColorado offenseBaylor defense
Colorado gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Baylor.
Offensive Success Rate · 35.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Colorado run game
EDGEColorado offenseBaylor defense
Colorado gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Baylor.
Rushing Success Rate · 35.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Colorado pass game
EDGEColorado offenseBaylor defense
Colorado gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Baylor.
Passing Success Rate · 34.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Colorado team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Baylor team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.