Overall team quality
Strong Kansas State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Kansas StateatCincinnati
Kansas State26
Cincinnati31
MISSED
SharpTake projected Kansas State at 62%. Cincinnati won.
ProjectedKansas State by 5.0
ActualCincinnati by 5
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadKansas State -6.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Cincinnati +6.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kansas State 62%Cincinnati 38%
SharpTake projects Kansas State to win.
Kansas StateProjected winner
62%Win probability
Kansas State by 5.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Kansas State
Kansas State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Kansas State. Kansas State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance.
Down-to-down efficiency
Kansas State advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Kansas State advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Kansas State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Cincinnati run game
EDGECincinnati offenseKansas State defense
Cincinnati gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Cincinnati explosive plays
EDGECincinnati offenseKansas State defense
Cincinnati creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas State allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.308Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.326Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Kansas State disruption vs Cincinnati
EDGECincinnati disruption allowedKansas State disruption created
Cincinnati avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Kansas State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Cincinnati team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.