Overall team quality
Strong TCU advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
TCUatUCF
TCU13
UCF21
MISSED
SharpTake projected TCU at 60%. UCF won.
ProjectedTCU by 4.0
ActualUCF by 8
Difference12.0 pts
Market spreadTCU -3.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: TCU -3.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
TCU 60%UCF 40%
SharpTake projects TCU to win.
TCUProjected winner
60%Win probability
TCU by 4.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans TCU
TCU's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors TCU. TCU also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while UCF's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
UCF offset
Down-to-down efficiency
TCU advantage
Running-game efficiency
Slight TCU advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UCF explosive plays
EDGEUCF offenseTCU defense
UCF creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while TCU allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors UCF.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.367Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.280Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Run game
NO EDGEUCF offenseTCU defense
UCF gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while TCU allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGETCU offenseUCF defense
TCU gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UCF allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
TCU team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UCF team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.