Overall team quality
Strong Utah advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
UtahatIowa State
Utah31
Iowa State17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Utah at 62%. Utah won.
ProjectedUtah by 4.0
ActualUtah by 14
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadUtah -7.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Iowa State +7.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Utah 62%Iowa State 38%
SharpTake projects Utah to win.
UtahProjected winner
62%Win probability
Utah by 4.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Utah
Utah's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Utah. Utah also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Iowa State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Utah advantage
Current season's results
Iowa State offset
Last season's results
Iowa State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Utah staying on schedule
EDGEUtah offenseIowa State defense
Utah gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Utah run game
EDGEUtah offenseIowa State defense
Utah gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Rushing Success Rate · 52.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Iowa State pass game
EDGEIowa State offenseUtah defense
Iowa State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Utah allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah.
Passing Success Rate · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Utah team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Iowa State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.