Last season's results
Baylor offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
BayloratArizona State
Baylor55
Arizona State19
MISSED
SharpTake projected Arizona State at 54%. Baylor won.
ProjectedArizona State by 2.0
ActualBaylor by 36
Difference38.0 pts
Market spreadArizona State -3.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Baylor +3.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Baylor 46%Arizona State 54%
SharpTake projects Arizona State to win.
Arizona StateProjected winner
54%Win probability
Arizona State by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arizona State
Arizona State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arizona State. Baylor's record from last season pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Arizona State advantage
Running-game efficiency
Baylor offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Baylor offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Pass game
NO EDGEArizona State offenseBaylor defense
Arizona State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGEArizona State offenseBaylor defense
Arizona State creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Baylor allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.230Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.165Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Disruption
NO EDGEBaylor disruption allowedArizona State disruption created
Baylor avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Baylor team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arizona State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.