SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5

BYUatTCU

Sat, Oct. 3 · 7:00 PM ET · Amon G. Carter Stadium

BYU17
TCU10
CALLED

SharpTake projected BYU at 59%. BYU won.

ProjectedBYU by 3.0
ActualBYU by 7
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadBYU -6
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: TCU +6

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects BYU to win.

BYUProjected winner
59%Win probability
BYU by 3.0Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans BYU

BYU's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors BYU. BYU also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while TCU's current season's results pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong BYU advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

BYU advantage

Current season's results

TCU offset

Last season's results

TCU offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Staying on schedule

NO EDGE
TCU offenseBYU defense

TCU gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while BYU allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Success Rate · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Run game

NO EDGE
TCU offenseBYU defense

TCU gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while BYU allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Rushing Success Rate · 43.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Pass game

NO EDGE
TCU offenseBYU defense

TCU gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while BYU allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Passing Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

BYU team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. TCU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

BYU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
TCU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 3, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET

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