Overall team quality
Houston advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
UCFatHouston
UCF17
Houston27
CALLED
SharpTake projected Houston at 71%. Houston won.
ProjectedHouston by 8.5
ActualHouston by 10
Difference1.5 pts
Market spreadHouston -10.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: UCF +10.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UCF 29%Houston 71%
SharpTake projects Houston to win.
HoustonProjected winner
71%Win probability
Houston by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Houston
Houston's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Houston. Houston also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and recent scoring performance, while UCF's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
UCF offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Houston advantage
Recent scoring performance
Houston advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Houston explosive plays
EDGEHouston offenseUCF defense
Houston creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while UCF allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.211Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.130Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Run game
NO EDGEHouston offenseUCF defense
Houston gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while UCF allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Disruption
NO EDGEUCF disruption allowedHouston disruption created
UCF avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Houston creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Havoc Rate allowed · 17.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UCF team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Houston team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.