Overall team quality
Arizona advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
CincinnatiatArizona
Cincinnati7
Arizona34
CALLED
SharpTake projected Arizona at 68%. Arizona won.
ProjectedArizona by 7.5
ActualArizona by 27
Difference19.5 pts
Market spreadArizona -6.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Arizona -6.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Cincinnati 32%Arizona 68%
SharpTake projects Arizona to win.
ArizonaProjected winner
68%Win probability
Arizona by 7.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arizona
Arizona's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arizona. Arizona also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Cincinnati's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Arizona advantage
Current season's results
Arizona advantage
Big-play ability
Cincinnati offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Cincinnati run game
EDGECincinnati offenseArizona defense
Cincinnati gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Arizona allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Cincinnati disruption vs Arizona
EDGEArizona disruption allowedCincinnati disruption created
Arizona avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Cincinnati creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Cincinnati finishing drives
EDGECincinnati offenseArizona defense
Cincinnati scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Arizona allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.60 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.38 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Cincinnati team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Arizona team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.