Overall team quality
Iowa State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
West VirginiaatIowa State
West Virginia42
Iowa State45
CALLED
SharpTake projected Iowa State at 71%. Iowa State won.
ProjectedIowa State by 8.5
ActualIowa State by 3
Difference5.5 pts
Market spreadIowa State -3
Vs spreadPUSHSharpTake Pick: Iowa State -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
West Virginia 29%Iowa State 71%
SharpTake projects Iowa State to win.
Iowa StateProjected winner
71%Win probability
Iowa State by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Iowa State
Iowa State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Iowa State. Iowa State also has the edge in current season's results and down-to-down efficiency, while West Virginia's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
West Virginia offset
Current season's results
Iowa State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Iowa State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
West Virginia pass game
EDGEWest Virginia offenseIowa State defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Iowa State.
Passing Success Rate · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Iowa State explosive plays
EDGEIowa State offenseWest Virginia defense
Iowa State creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while West Virginia allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.209Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEWest Virginia offenseIowa State defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
West Virginia team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Iowa State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.