Overall team quality
Strong Arizona advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
ArizonaatWest Virginia
Arizona52
West Virginia31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Arizona at 71%. Arizona won.
ProjectedArizona by 8.0
ActualArizona by 21
Difference13.0 pts
Market spreadArizona -3.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Arizona -3.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arizona 71%West Virginia 29%
SharpTake projects Arizona to win.
ArizonaProjected winner
71%Win probability
Arizona by 8.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Arizona
Arizona's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Arizona. Arizona also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while West Virginia's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Arizona advantage
Last season's results
West Virginia offset
Passing efficiency
West Virginia offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
West Virginia pass game
CLEAR EDGEWest Virginia offenseArizona defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Arizona allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Passing Success Rate · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
West Virginia staying on schedule
EDGEWest Virginia offenseArizona defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Arizona allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Arizona explosive plays
EDGEArizona offenseWest Virginia defense
Arizona creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while West Virginia allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.252Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Arizona team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
West Virginia team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.