Overall team quality
UCF offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
UCFatOklahoma State
UCF28
Oklahoma State42
CALLED
SharpTake projected Oklahoma State at 55%. Oklahoma State won.
ProjectedOklahoma State by 2.0
ActualOklahoma State by 14
Difference12.0 pts
Market spreadOklahoma State -10.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: UCF +10.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UCF 45%Oklahoma State 55%
SharpTake projects Oklahoma State to win.
Oklahoma StateProjected winner
55%Win probability
Oklahoma State by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State also has the edge in recent scoring performance, while UCF's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Oklahoma State advantage
Big-play ability
UCF offset
Recent scoring performance
Oklahoma State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UCF explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEUCF offenseOklahoma State defense
UCF creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Oklahoma State allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.367Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.357Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Oklahoma State staying on schedule
EDGEOklahoma State offenseUCF defense
Oklahoma State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while UCF allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors UCF.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
UCF pass game
EDGEUCF offenseOklahoma State defense
UCF gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Oklahoma State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Passing Success Rate · 40.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UCF team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Oklahoma State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.