Last season's results
Kansas State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
HoustonatKansas State
Houston35
Kansas State16
MISSED
SharpTake projected Kansas State at 65%. Houston won.
ProjectedKansas State by 6.5
ActualHouston by 19
Difference25.5 pts
Market spreadKansas State -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Kansas State -2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Houston 35%Kansas State 65%
SharpTake projects Kansas State to win.
Kansas StateProjected winner
65%Win probability
Kansas State by 6.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Kansas State
Kansas State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Kansas State. Kansas State also has the edge in big-play ability, while Houston's down-to-down efficiency pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Houston offset
Overall team quality
Houston offset
Big-play ability
Slight Kansas State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Run game
NO EDGEKansas State offenseHouston defense
Kansas State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Houston allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEHouston offenseKansas State defense
Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Kansas State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 44.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explosive plays
NO EDGEHouston offenseKansas State defense
Houston creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Kansas State allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.211Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.326Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Houston team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Kansas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.