Overall team quality
Strong BYU advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Iowa StateatBYU
Iowa State10
BYU24
CALLED
SharpTake projected BYU at 82%. BYU won.
ProjectedBYU by 14.5
ActualBYU by 14
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadBYU -11.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: BYU -11.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Iowa State 18%BYU 82%
SharpTake projects BYU to win.
BYUProjected winner
82%Win probability
BYU by 14.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans BYU
BYU's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors BYU. BYU also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Iowa State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
BYU advantage
Current season's results
Iowa State offset
Running-game efficiency
BYU advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
BYU explosive plays
EDGEBYU offenseIowa State defense
BYU creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.170Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.179Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEIowa State offenseBYU defense
Iowa State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while BYU allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEIowa State offenseBYU defense
Iowa State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while BYU allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Iowa State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
BYU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.