Overall team quality
Strong Utah advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
KansasatUtah
Kansas24
Utah41
CALLED
SharpTake projected Utah at 80%. Utah won.
ProjectedUtah by 12.5
ActualUtah by 17
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadUtah -15.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Kansas +15.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kansas 20%Utah 80%
SharpTake projects Utah to win.
UtahProjected winner
80%Win probability
Utah by 12.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Utah
Utah's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Utah. Utah also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while Kansas's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Kansas offset
Current season's results
Kansas offset
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Utah advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Utah finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEUtah offenseKansas defense
Utah scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah.
Points per scoring opportunity · 5.01 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.24 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Utah staying on schedule
EDGEUtah offenseKansas defense
Utah gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Utah run game
EDGEUtah offenseKansas defense
Utah gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Rushing Success Rate · 52.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Kansas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Utah team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.