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SharpTake projected Texas Tech at 88%. Texas Tech won.
ProjectedTexas Tech by 18.5
ActualTexas Tech by 28
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadTexas Tech -16
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Texas Tech -16
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Arizona State 12%Texas Tech 88%
SharpTake projects Texas Tech to win.
Texas TechProjected winner
88%Win probability
Texas Tech by 18.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arizona State pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Arizona State offenseTexas Tech defense
Arizona State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Passing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Arizona State disruption allowedTexas Tech disruption created
Arizona State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 23.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Arizona State finishing drives
CLEAR EDGE
Arizona State offenseTexas Tech defense
Arizona State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.37 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.41 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Arizona State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Texas Tech position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET