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SharpTake projected Cincinnati at 54%. West Virginia won.
ProjectedCincinnati by 1.5
ActualWest Virginia by 3
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadWest Virginia -1.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Cincinnati +1.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Cincinnati 54%West Virginia 46%
SharpTake projects Cincinnati to win.
CincinnatiProjected winner
54%Win probability
Cincinnati by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Cincinnati explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Cincinnati offenseWest Virginia defense
Cincinnati creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while West Virginia allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.308Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
West Virginia pass game
EDGE
West Virginia offenseCincinnati defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Cincinnati allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Cincinnati.
Passing Success Rate · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
West Virginia disruption allowedCincinnati disruption created
West Virginia avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Cincinnati creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors West Virginia.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Cincinnati position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.West Virginia position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET