SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

KansasatKansas State

Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Kansas24
Kansas State35
CALLED

SharpTake projected Kansas State at 58%. Kansas State won.

ProjectedKansas State by 3.0
ActualKansas State by 11
Difference8.0 pts
Market spreadKansas State -3.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Kansas +3.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Kansas State to win.

Kansas StateProjected winner
58%Win probability
Kansas State by 3.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Kansas State explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Kansas State offenseKansas defense

Kansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kansas State.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.393Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.383Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Kansas staying on schedule

EDGE
Kansas offenseKansas State defense

Kansas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas.

Offensive Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Kansas run game

EDGE
Kansas offenseKansas State defense

Kansas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas.

Rushing Success Rate · 51.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Kansas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Kansas State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Kansas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Kansas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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