SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Oklahoma StateatHouston

Sat, Oct. 17 · 7:30 PM ET · TDECU Stadium

Oklahoma State32
Houston35
CALLED

SharpTake projected Houston at 79%. Houston won.

ProjectedHouston by 12.5
ActualHouston by 3
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadHouston -4.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Houston -4.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Houston to win.

HoustonProjected winner
79%Win probability
Houston by 12.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Oklahoma State explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseHouston defense

Oklahoma State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Houston allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Houston.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.156Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.119Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Oklahoma State staying on schedule

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseHouston defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Houston allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Houston.

Offensive Success Rate · 34.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Oklahoma State run game

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseHouston defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Houston allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Houston.

Rushing Success Rate · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Oklahoma State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Houston team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Oklahoma State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Houston position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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