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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
TCU 35%Baylor 65%
SharpTake projects Baylor to win.
BaylorProjected winner
65%Win probability
Baylor by 6.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
TCU finishing drives
CLEAR EDGE
TCU offenseBaylor defense
TCU scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors TCU.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.14 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.30 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Baylor disruption vs TCU
EDGE
TCU disruption allowedBaylor disruption created
TCU avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Baylor creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors TCU.
Havoc Rate allowed · 15.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Run game
NO EDGE
Baylor offenseTCU defense
Baylor gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while TCU allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
TCU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Baylor position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET