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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Utah 91%Colorado 9%
SharpTake projects Utah to win.
UtahProjected winner
91%Win probability
Utah by 22.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Colorado pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Colorado offenseUtah defense
Colorado gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Utah allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah.
Passing Success Rate · 34.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Colorado gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Utah allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah.
Offensive Success Rate · 35.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Utah run game
EDGE
Utah offenseColorado defense
Utah gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Colorado allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Rushing Success Rate · 52.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Utah position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Colorado position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET