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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Baylor 46%Kansas 54%
SharpTake projects Kansas to win.
KansasProjected winner
54%Win probability
Kansas by 1.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Kansas explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Kansas offenseBaylor defense
Kansas creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Baylor.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.124Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.165Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Kansas staying on schedule
EDGE
Kansas offenseBaylor defense
Kansas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Kansas run game
EDGE
Kansas offenseBaylor defense
Kansas gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Baylor allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas.
Rushing Success Rate · 51.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Baylor position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Kansas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET