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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
BYU 74%UCF 26%
SharpTake projects BYU to win.
BYUProjected winner
74%Win probability
BYU by 10.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
BYU explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
BYU offenseUCF defense
BYU creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while UCF allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCF.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.170Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.130Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
BYU run game
EDGE
BYU offenseUCF defense
BYU gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UCF allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors BYU.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
UCF gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while BYU allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
BYU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.UCF position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET