SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

ColoradoatOklahoma State

Sat, Oct. 24 · 7:00 PM ET · Boone Pickens Stadium

Colorado24
Oklahoma State57
CALLED

SharpTake projected Oklahoma State at 73%. Oklahoma State won.

ProjectedOklahoma State by 9.5
ActualOklahoma State by 33
Difference23.5 pts
Market spreadOklahoma State -13.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Colorado +13.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Oklahoma State to win.

Oklahoma StateProjected winner
73%Win probability
Oklahoma State by 9.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Oklahoma State staying on schedule

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseColorado defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Colorado allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Colorado.

Offensive Success Rate · 34.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Oklahoma State run game

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseColorado defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Colorado allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Colorado.

Rushing Success Rate · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Oklahoma State pass game

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseColorado defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Colorado allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Colorado.

Passing Success Rate · 34.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Colorado team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Oklahoma State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Colorado position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Oklahoma State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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