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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Houston 26%Utah 74%
SharpTake projects Utah to win.
UtahProjected winner
74%Win probability
Utah by 9.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Utah staying on schedule
EDGE
Utah offenseHouston defense
Utah gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Houston allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Utah run game
EDGE
Utah offenseHouston defense
Utah gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Houston allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Utah.
Rushing Success Rate · 52.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Houston gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Utah allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Utah.
Passing Success Rate · 44.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Houston position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Utah position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET