SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

Iowa StateatArizona

Sat, Oct. 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Arizona Stadium

Iowa State3
Arizona39
CALLED

SharpTake projected Arizona at 71%. Arizona won.

ProjectedArizona by 8.0
ActualArizona by 36
Difference28.0 pts
Market spreadArizona -12.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Iowa State +12.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Arizona to win.

ArizonaProjected winner
71%Win probability
Arizona by 8.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Iowa State pass game

EDGE
Iowa State offenseArizona defense

Iowa State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.

Passing Success Rate · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 33.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Arizona disruption vs Iowa State

EDGE
Iowa State disruption allowedArizona disruption created

Iowa State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona.

Havoc Rate allowed · 14.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 20.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created

Staying on schedule

NO EDGE
Iowa State offenseArizona defense

Iowa State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Arizona allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.

Offensive Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Iowa State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Arizona team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Iowa State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Arizona position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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