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Sat, Oct. 24 · 3:45 PM ET · Mountain America Stadium
Kansas State17
Arizona State28
MISSED
SharpTake projected Kansas State at 67%. Arizona State won.
ProjectedKansas State by 6.5
ActualArizona State by 11
Difference17.5 pts
Market spreadKansas State -1.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Kansas State -1.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Kansas State 67%Arizona State 33%
SharpTake projects Kansas State to win.
Kansas StateProjected winner
67%Win probability
Kansas State by 6.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Arizona State pass game
EDGE
Arizona State offenseKansas State defense
Arizona State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Kansas State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Kansas State.
Passing Success Rate · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Kansas State creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Arizona State allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.393Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.218Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Arizona State disruption vs Kansas State
EDGE
Kansas State disruption allowedArizona State disruption created
Kansas State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Arizona State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Arizona State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 17.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Kansas State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Arizona State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET