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SharpTake projected Texas Tech at 76%. Cincinnati won.
ProjectedTexas Tech by 11.0
ActualCincinnati by 13
Difference24.0 pts
Market spreadTexas Tech -11.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Cincinnati +11.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Texas Tech 76%Cincinnati 24%
SharpTake projects Texas Tech to win.
Texas TechProjected winner
76%Win probability
Texas Tech by 11.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Cincinnati disruption vs Texas Tech
EDGE
Texas Tech disruption allowedCincinnati disruption created
Texas Tech avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Cincinnati creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Texas Tech.
Havoc Rate allowed · 15.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Cincinnati offenseTexas Tech defense
Cincinnati gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Texas Tech allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 31.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Texas Tech offenseCincinnati defense
Texas Tech gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Cincinnati allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 43.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Texas Tech position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Cincinnati position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET