Control basic Google Analytics for this browser. Analytics is on by default for eligible U.S. visits; elsewhere, it needs your permission. Sports questions are not sent to Google Analytics. Privacy policy
Sat, Oct. 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Amon G. Carter Stadium
West Virginia24
TCU20
MISSED
SharpTake projected TCU at 77%. West Virginia won.
ProjectedTCU by 11.5
ActualWest Virginia by 4
Difference15.5 pts
Market spreadTCU -10.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: TCU -10.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
West Virginia 23%TCU 77%
SharpTake projects TCU to win.
TCUProjected winner
77%Win probability
TCU by 11.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
West Virginia pass game
EDGE
West Virginia offenseTCU defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while TCU allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors TCU.
Passing Success Rate · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
TCU creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while West Virginia allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors TCU.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.263Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
West Virginia offenseTCU defense
West Virginia gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while TCU allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
West Virginia position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.TCU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET