SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

KansasatTCU

Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Amon G. Carter Stadium

SharpTake projects TCU to win.

TCUProjected winner
63%Win probability
TCU by 5.0Projected margin
SharpTakeTCU by 5.0
Market SpreadTCU -6

Market is 1.0 points higher on TCU.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Kansas staying on schedule

EDGE
Kansas offenseTCU defense

Kansas gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while TCU allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Kansas.

Offensive Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

TCU explosive plays

EDGE
TCU offenseKansas defense

TCU creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Kansas allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors TCU.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.263Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.383Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

TCU finishing drives

EDGE
TCU offenseKansas defense

TCU scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams, while Kansas allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors TCU.

Points per scoring opportunity · 4.14 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.24 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Kansas team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. TCU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Kansas position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
TCU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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