SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

#24 Oklahoma StateatIowa State

Sat, Oct. 31 · 7:00 PM ET · Jack Trice Stadium

SharpTake projects Oklahoma State to win.

Oklahoma StateProjected winner
54%Win probability
Oklahoma State by 1.5Projected margin
SharpTakeOklahoma State by 1.5
Market SpreadOklahoma State -9.25

Market is 7.75 points higher on Oklahoma State.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Oklahoma State finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseIowa State defense

Oklahoma State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa State.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.96 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.06 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Oklahoma State staying on schedule

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseIowa State defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Iowa State.

Offensive Success Rate · 34.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 39.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Oklahoma State run game

EDGE
Oklahoma State offenseIowa State defense

Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Iowa State.

Rushing Success Rate · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Oklahoma State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Iowa State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Oklahoma State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Iowa State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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