Overall team quality
Strong West Virginia advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Oklahoma StateatWest Virginia
Oklahoma State41
West Virginia24
MISSED
SharpTake projected West Virginia at 74%. Oklahoma State won.
ProjectedWest Virginia by 10.0
ActualOklahoma State by 17
Difference27.0 pts
Market spreadWest Virginia -1.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: West Virginia -1.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Oklahoma State 26%West Virginia 74%
SharpTake projects West Virginia to win.
West VirginiaProjected winner
74%Win probability
West Virginia by 10.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans West Virginia
West Virginia's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors West Virginia. West Virginia also has the edge in running-game efficiency, while Oklahoma State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Oklahoma State offset
Current season's results
Oklahoma State offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight West Virginia advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oklahoma State run game
CLEAR EDGEOklahoma State offenseWest Virginia defense
Oklahoma State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while West Virginia allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors West Virginia.
Rushing Success Rate · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
West Virginia disruption vs Oklahoma State
CLEAR EDGEOklahoma State disruption allowedWest Virginia disruption created
Oklahoma State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while West Virginia creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors West Virginia.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Oklahoma State staying on schedule
EDGEOklahoma State offenseWest Virginia defense
Oklahoma State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while West Virginia allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors West Virginia.
Offensive Success Rate · 34.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Oklahoma State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
West Virginia team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.