Last season's results
NC State offset
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Virginia
Virginia's big-play ability is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Virginia. NC State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Slight Virginia advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Virginia explosive plays
EDGEVirginia offenseNC State defense
Virginia creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while NC State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Virginia.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.277Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGENC State offenseVirginia defense
NC State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Virginia allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGENC State offenseVirginia defense
NC State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Virginia allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 42.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 35.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
NC State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Virginia team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.