FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1

AkronatWake Forest

Thu, Sep. 3 · 7:00 PM ET · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

Akron16
Wake Forest38
CALLED

SharpTake projected Wake Forest at 90%. Wake Forest won.

ProjectedWake Forest by 22.5
ActualWake Forest by 22
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadWake Forest -24.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Akron +24.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Wake Forest to win.

Wake ForestProjected winner
90%Win probability
Wake Forest by 22.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Wake Forest

Wake Forest's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Wake Forest. Wake Forest also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and big-play ability, while Akron's record from last season pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong Wake Forest advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

Wake Forest advantage

Big-play ability

Wake Forest advantage

Last season's results

Akron offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Akron staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Akron offenseWake Forest defense

Akron gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.

Offensive Success Rate · 39.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Akron pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Akron offenseWake Forest defense

Akron gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.

Passing Success Rate · 37.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Wake Forest explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Wake Forest offenseAkron defense

Wake Forest creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Akron allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.478Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.312Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Position rooms

Akron position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Wake Forest position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
  • Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 3, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET

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