Last season's results
Duke advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Duke
Duke's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Duke. Duke also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Tulane's overall quality pushes the other way.
Overall team quality
Tulane offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Duke advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Tulane pass game
CLEAR EDGETulane offenseDuke defense
Tulane gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.
Passing Success Rate · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Duke staying on schedule
EDGEDuke offenseTulane defense
Duke gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Tulane allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Duke.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Tulane finishing drives
EDGETulane offenseDuke defense
Tulane scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Duke allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Tulane.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.88 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.39 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Tulane team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Duke team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.