FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 2

RutgersatBoston College

Fri, Sep. 11 · 7:30 PM ET · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

Rutgers21
Boston College28
CALLED

SharpTake projected Boston College at 62%. Boston College won.

ProjectedBoston College by 5.5
ActualBoston College by 7
Difference1.5 pts
Market spreadBoston College -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Boston College -3

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Boston College to win.

Boston CollegeProjected winner
62%Win probability
Boston College by 5.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Boston College

Boston College's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Boston College. Rutgers's overall quality pushes the other way.

Last season's results

Boston College advantage

Overall team quality

Rutgers offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Boston College staying on schedule

EDGE
Boston College offenseRutgers defense

Boston College gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boston College.

Offensive Success Rate · 43.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 47.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Boston College run game

EDGE
Boston College offenseRutgers defense

Boston College gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boston College.

Rushing Success Rate · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Boston College pass game

EDGE
Boston College offenseRutgers defense

Boston College gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Boston College.

Passing Success Rate · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Position rooms

Rutgers position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Boston College position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET

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