Overall team quality
Strong Duke advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Duke
Duke's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Duke. Duke also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Stanford's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Stanford offset
Last season's results
Stanford offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Duke advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Stanford staying on schedule
EDGEStanford offenseDuke defense
Stanford gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Duke.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Stanford run game
EDGEStanford offenseDuke defense
Stanford gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Duke.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEDuke offenseStanford defense
Duke gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Stanford allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 46.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Stanford team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Duke team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.