Game forecast · REGULAR week 3

Virginia TechatMaryland

Sat, Sep. 19 · 7:30 PM ET · SECU Stadium

SharpTake projects Virginia Tech to win.

Virginia TechProjected winner
51%Win probability
Virginia Tech by 0.5Projected margin
SharpTakeVirginia Tech by 0.5
Market SpreadVirginia Tech -3

Market is 2.5 points higher on Virginia Tech.

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech's running-game efficiency is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and overall quality.

Running-game efficiency

Virginia Tech advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

Slight Virginia Tech advantage

Overall team quality

Slight Virginia Tech advantage

Last season's results

Slight Virginia Tech advantage

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Maryland run game

EDGE
Maryland offenseVirginia Tech defense

Maryland gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Virginia Tech allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Virginia Tech.

Rushing Success Rate · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 43.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Virginia Tech pass game

EDGE
Virginia Tech offenseMaryland defense

Virginia Tech gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Maryland allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Maryland.

Passing Success Rate · 34.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Maryland finishing drives

EDGE
Maryland offenseVirginia Tech defense

Maryland scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Virginia Tech allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.

Points per scoring opportunity · 3.39 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.34 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Position rooms

Virginia Tech position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Maryland position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 19, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET

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