Overall team quality
Strong SMU advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Missouri StateatSMU
Missouri State24
SMU34
CALLED
SharpTake projected SMU at 93%. SMU won.
ProjectedSMU by 24.5
ActualSMU by 10
Difference14.5 pts
Market spreadSMU -31
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Missouri State +31
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Missouri State 7%SMU 93%
SharpTake projects SMU to win.
SMUProjected winner
93%Win probability
SMU by 24.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans SMU
SMU's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors SMU. SMU also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Missouri State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong SMU advantage
Current season's results
Missouri State offset
Current season's scoring performance
SMU advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
SMU disruption vs Missouri State
CLEAR EDGEMissouri State disruption allowedSMU disruption created
Missouri State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while SMU creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Havoc Rate allowed · 24.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
SMU explosive plays
CLEAR EDGESMU offenseMissouri State defense
SMU creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Missouri State allows big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.361Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.322Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Missouri State run game
EDGEMissouri State offenseSMU defense
Missouri State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while SMU allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Missouri State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
SMU team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.