Overall team quality
Strong Louisville advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
Wake ForestatLouisville
Wake Forest30
Louisville27
MISSED
SharpTake projected Louisville at 83%. Wake Forest won.
ProjectedLouisville by 15.5
ActualWake Forest by 3
Difference18.5 pts
Market spreadLouisville -11.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Louisville -11.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Wake Forest 17%Louisville 83%
SharpTake projects Louisville to win.
LouisvilleProjected winner
83%Win probability
Louisville by 15.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Louisville
Louisville's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Louisville. Louisville also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Wake Forest's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Louisville advantage
Big-play ability
Wake Forest offset
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Louisville advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Wake Forest staying on schedule
EDGEWake Forest offenseLouisville defense
Wake Forest gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Wake Forest run game
EDGEWake Forest offenseLouisville defense
Wake Forest gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.
Rushing Success Rate · 39.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Wake Forest pass game
EDGEWake Forest offenseLouisville defense
Wake Forest gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.
Passing Success Rate · 36.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Wake Forest team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Louisville team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.