Overall team quality
Pittsburgh offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
PittsburghatVirginia Tech
Pittsburgh35
Virginia Tech33
MISSED
SharpTake projected Virginia Tech at 55%. Pittsburgh won.
ProjectedVirginia Tech by 2.0
ActualPittsburgh by 2
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadVirginia Tech -2.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Pittsburgh +2.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Pittsburgh 45%Virginia Tech 55%
SharpTake projects Virginia Tech to win.
Virginia TechProjected winner
55%Win probability
Virginia Tech by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Virginia Tech advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Pittsburgh offset
Recent scoring performance
Pittsburgh offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Virginia Tech pass game
CLEAR EDGEVirginia Tech offensePittsburgh defense
Virginia Tech gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Pittsburgh allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Passing Success Rate · 34.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Virginia Tech staying on schedule
EDGEVirginia Tech offensePittsburgh defense
Virginia Tech gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Pittsburgh allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Offensive Success Rate · 41.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pittsburgh disruption vs Virginia Tech
EDGEVirginia Tech disruption allowedPittsburgh disruption created
Virginia Tech avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Pittsburgh creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.7%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 18.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Pittsburgh team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Virginia Tech team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.