Overall team quality
Louisville advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
LouisvilleatNC State
Louisville28
NC State31
MISSED
SharpTake projected Louisville at 52%. NC State won.
ProjectedLouisville by 0.5
ActualNC State by 3
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadLouisville -4.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: NC State +4.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Louisville 52%NC State 48%
SharpTake projects Louisville to win.
LouisvilleProjected winner
52%Win probability
Louisville by 0.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Louisville
Louisville's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Louisville. Louisville also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and big-play ability, while NC State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Louisville advantage
Last season's results
NC State offset
Big-play ability
Slight Louisville advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisville run game
EDGELouisville offenseNC State defense
Louisville gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while NC State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Louisville.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
NC State finishing drives
EDGENC State offenseLouisville defense
NC State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors NC State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.69 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.38 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGENC State offenseLouisville defense
NC State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisville allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Louisville team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
NC State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.