Overall team quality
Strong Miami advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
MiamiatClemson
Miami41
Clemson13
CALLED
SharpTake projected Miami at 87%. Miami won.
ProjectedMiami by 18.0
ActualMiami by 28
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadMiami -15
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Miami -15
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Miami 87%Clemson 13%
SharpTake projects Miami to win.
MiamiProjected winner
87%Win probability
Miami by 18.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Miami
Miami's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Miami. Miami also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Clemson's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Miami advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Miami advantage
Last season's results
Clemson offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Clemson staying on schedule
EDGEClemson offenseMiami defense
Clemson gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Clemson run game
EDGEClemson offenseMiami defense
Clemson gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Miami disruption vs Clemson
EDGEClemson disruption allowedMiami disruption created
Clemson avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Havoc Rate allowed · 15.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Miami team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Clemson team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.