Overall team quality
Strong Notre Dame advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Notre DameatNorth Carolina
Notre Dame37
North Carolina26
CALLED
SharpTake projected Notre Dame at 87%. Notre Dame won.
ProjectedNotre Dame by 18.0
ActualNotre Dame by 11
Difference7.0 pts
Market spreadNotre Dame -21
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: North Carolina +21
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Notre Dame 87%North Carolina 13%
SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.
Notre DameProjected winner
87%Win probability
Notre Dame by 18.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Notre Dame
Notre Dame's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Notre Dame. Notre Dame also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while North Carolina's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Notre Dame advantage
Last season's results
North Carolina offset
Current season's results
North Carolina offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Carolina finishing drives
CLEAR EDGENorth Carolina offenseNotre Dame defense
North Carolina scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.33 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
North Carolina staying on schedule
EDGENorth Carolina offenseNotre Dame defense
North Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Notre Dame pass game
EDGENotre Dame offenseNorth Carolina defense
Notre Dame gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while North Carolina allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Passing Success Rate · 49.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 39.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Notre Dame team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
North Carolina team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.