Overall team quality
Strong Wake Forest advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
StanfordatWake Forest
Stanford3
Wake Forest57
CALLED
SharpTake projected Wake Forest at 81%. Wake Forest won.
ProjectedWake Forest by 13.5
ActualWake Forest by 54
Difference40.5 pts
Market spreadWake Forest -14.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Stanford +14.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Stanford 19%Wake Forest 81%
SharpTake projects Wake Forest to win.
Wake ForestProjected winner
81%Win probability
Wake Forest by 13.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Wake Forest
Wake Forest's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Wake Forest. Wake Forest also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and big-play ability, while Stanford's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Stanford offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Wake Forest advantage
Big-play ability
Wake Forest advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Stanford staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEStanford offenseWake Forest defense
Stanford gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Stanford run game
CLEAR EDGEStanford offenseWake Forest defense
Stanford gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Stanford pass game
CLEAR EDGEStanford offenseWake Forest defense
Stanford gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Passing Success Rate · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Stanford team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Wake Forest team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.