Overall team quality
UConn advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
SyracuseatUConn
Syracuse42
UConn41
MISSED
SharpTake projected UConn at 61%. Syracuse won.
ProjectedUConn by 4.0
ActualSyracuse by 1
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadSyracuse -6.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: UConn +6.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Syracuse 39%UConn 61%
SharpTake projects UConn to win.
UConnProjected winner
61%Win probability
UConn by 4.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans UConn
UConn's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors UConn. Syracuse's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Syracuse offset
Current season's results
Syracuse offset
Recent scoring performance
Syracuse offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
UConn staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEUConn offenseSyracuse defense
UConn gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Syracuse allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Syracuse disruption vs UConn
CLEAR EDGEUConn disruption allowedSyracuse disruption created
UConn avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Syracuse creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 13.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
UConn finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEUConn offenseSyracuse defense
UConn scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Syracuse allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UConn.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.15 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Syracuse team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
UConn team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.