Overall team quality
Louisville advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Florida StateatLouisville
Florida State20
Louisville44
CALLED
SharpTake projected Louisville at 65%. Louisville won.
ProjectedLouisville by 6.5
ActualLouisville by 24
Difference17.5 pts
Market spreadLouisville -4
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Louisville -4
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida State 35%Louisville 65%
SharpTake projects Louisville to win.
LouisvilleProjected winner
65%Win probability
Louisville by 6.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Louisville
Louisville's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Louisville. Louisville also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Florida State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Florida State offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Louisville advantage
Current season's results
Slight Louisville advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisville run game
EDGELouisville offenseFlorida State defense
Louisville gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Louisville.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Louisville explosive plays
EDGELouisville offenseFlorida State defense
Louisville creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Florida State allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Florida State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.192Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.186Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Pass game
NO EDGEFlorida State offenseLouisville defense
Florida State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisville allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 42.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Florida State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Louisville team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.