Overall team quality
Strong Duke advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
DukeatGeorgia Tech
Duke25
Georgia Tech28
MISSED
SharpTake projected Duke at 71%. Georgia Tech won.
ProjectedDuke by 8.5
ActualGeorgia Tech by 3
Difference11.5 pts
Market spreadDuke -4.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Duke -4.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Duke 71%Georgia Tech 29%
SharpTake projects Duke to win.
DukeProjected winner
71%Win probability
Duke by 8.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Duke
Duke's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Duke. Duke also has the edge in current season's scoring performance and recent scoring performance, while Georgia Tech's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Georgia Tech offset
Current season's scoring performance
Duke advantage
Recent scoring performance
Duke advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Georgia Tech pass game
CLEAR EDGEGeorgia Tech offenseDuke defense
Georgia Tech gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Georgia Tech.
Passing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Georgia Tech staying on schedule
EDGEGeorgia Tech offenseDuke defense
Georgia Tech gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Georgia Tech.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Georgia Tech run game
EDGEGeorgia Tech offenseDuke defense
Georgia Tech gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Georgia Tech.
Rushing Success Rate · 50.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Duke team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Georgia Tech team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.