Overall team quality
Strong Pittsburgh advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
North CarolinaatPittsburgh
North Carolina21
Pittsburgh17
MISSED
SharpTake projected Pittsburgh at 83%. North Carolina won.
ProjectedPittsburgh by 14.5
ActualNorth Carolina by 4
Difference18.5 pts
Market spreadPittsburgh -3.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Pittsburgh -3.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
North Carolina 17%Pittsburgh 83%
SharpTake projects Pittsburgh to win.
PittsburghProjected winner
83%Win probability
Pittsburgh by 14.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while North Carolina's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Pittsburgh advantage
Current season's results
North Carolina offset
Last season's results
North Carolina offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Carolina staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGENorth Carolina offensePittsburgh defense
North Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Pittsburgh allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
North Carolina run game
CLEAR EDGENorth Carolina offensePittsburgh defense
North Carolina gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Pittsburgh allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Pittsburgh disruption vs North Carolina
EDGENorth Carolina disruption allowedPittsburgh disruption created
North Carolina avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Pittsburgh creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 18.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
North Carolina team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Pittsburgh team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.