Overall team quality
Strong Notre Dame advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
StanfordatNotre Dame
Stanford7
Notre Dame58
CALLED
SharpTake projected Notre Dame at 98%. Notre Dame won.
ProjectedNotre Dame by 35.5
ActualNotre Dame by 51
Difference15.5 pts
Market spreadNotre Dame -40
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Stanford +40
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Stanford 2%Notre Dame 98%
SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.
Notre DameProjected winner
98%Win probability
Notre Dame by 35.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Notre Dame
Notre Dame's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Notre Dame. Notre Dame also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Stanford's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Notre Dame advantage
Last season's results
Stanford offset
Current season's scoring performance
Notre Dame advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Stanford staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEStanford offenseNotre Dame defense
Stanford gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Stanford finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEStanford offenseNotre Dame defense
Stanford scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.02 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Worse than most FBS teams
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Stanford run game
EDGEStanford offenseNotre Dame defense
Stanford gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 39.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Stanford team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Notre Dame team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.