Big-play ability
Wake Forest offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
Wake ForestatNC State
Wake Forest38
NC State14
MISSED
SharpTake projected NC State at 52%. Wake Forest won.
ProjectedNC State by 1.5
ActualWake Forest by 24
Difference25.5 pts
Market spreadWake Forest -3.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: NC State +3.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Wake Forest 48%NC State 52%
SharpTake projects NC State to win.
NC StateProjected winner
52%Win probability
NC State by 1.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans NC State
NC State's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors NC State. NC State also has the edge in record from last season, while Wake Forest's big-play ability pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Slight NC State advantage
Running-game efficiency
Wake Forest offset
Last season's results
Slight NC State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Wake Forest explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEWake Forest offenseNC State defense
Wake Forest creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while NC State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.478Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
NC State staying on schedule
EDGENC State offenseWake Forest defense
NC State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
NC State pass game
EDGENC State offenseWake Forest defense
NC State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Passing Success Rate · 42.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Wake Forest team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
NC State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.